Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine will enter its third year.

In February, Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine will enter its third year.

Neither Russia nor Ukraine shows any signs of achieving victory or a willingness to compromise on their incompatible objectives. Ukraine is fighting for its survival, territorial integrity and sovereignty, while Russia is intent on what it calls the “denazification” and demilitarization of Ukraine, and the prevention of its aspiration to join NATO and other Western bodies. The Russian framing of its unprovoked invasion as “denazification” has been dismissed by historians and political observers.

Putin starts the year more confidently than he did the year before.

Ukraine’s long-anticipated 2023 counteroffensive did not recapture the momentum Kyiv had gained by the end of 2022. Russia’s war stockpiles are being replenished by both Iran and North Korea. Plus, the world’s largest-by-area country always has its numerical advantage to rely on in terms of troops, unlike Ukraine, which will suffer increasingly from a manpower shortage next year.

Europe is limited in the ammunition and military hardware it can supply to Ukraine, with its own sad stocks depleted. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s worst fears of cracks in Western unity have also materialized: Political division in the US and Europe is now obstructing the delivery of military and economic aid. Zelensky’s December trip to Washington, DC, resulted in $200 million - instead of the $61 billion he wanted - for new munitions because congressional Republicans wouldn’t budge on the border policy changes they demanded in return.

Days later, Hungary blocked a European Union aid package of 50 billion euros ($55 billion) to Ukraine. This trend will likely continue to stymie Ukraine’s military efforts next year as both the US and EU will prioritize domestic issues ahead of their elections.

Ukraine might then focus on a defensive approach, training new recruits, and defense production. Crimea, illegally annexed by Russia in 2014, will continue to be the strategic prize which Ukraine seeks to strike and challenge Russia’s Black Sea dominance.

Although Ukraine is now formally on its EU membership path , the rhetorical and institutional embrace from allies will likely continue to stand in contrast to their actual military and financial support at times.

Naturally, the future of this conflict hinges in large part on who is at the helm of Ukraine’s biggest source of financial and military aid - the United States. Moscow favors a return of the Republican frontrunner Donald Trump this fall.